Predicting flu – INSIDE HEALTH, 20/1/15

Forecasting with google flu trends – doesn’t work

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0056176

http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12016836/The%20Parable%20of%20Google%20Flu%20(WP-Final).pdf?sequence=1

wikipedia was a bit better; correlation of page views and CDC data

http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1003581

or there’s twitter, which fits on historical data modelling

http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/twitter-improves-influenza-forecasting/

Several models incorporated additional data besides clinical or laboratory-based surveillance data to generate forecasts, including internet search queries and meteorological data.

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0094130

In the absence of reliable pandemic detection systems, computer-based simulations have become an important information tool for both policy-makers and the general public….

Although important lessons were learned during previous influenza pandemics16 and the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS),17 the interdependence among the broad range of processes occurring in a society under true stress (such as a pandemic) is not fully understood. In other words, even relatively minor breaches of the social order may significantly affect key infrastructural elements underpinning current pandemic response strategies. This frailty in the response strategies was not reflected in the description of the baseline situation in the case-study community.WHO http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/4/07-050203/en/

 

Flusurveyhttp://flusurvey.org.uk LSHTM

n contrast to traditional surveillance methods, Flusurvey collects data directly from the general public, rather than via hospitals or GPs. This is particularly important because many people with flu don’t visit a doctor so don’t feature in traditional flu surveillance.

Anyone who lives in the UK can register to take part

UK Flu reports

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports

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